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Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Al Ahed — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
2/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 8Al Ansar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh17%
×Draw23%
Al Ahed60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.81
Al Ahed
1.78

Al Ahed creates 120% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 76 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.78
Al Ahed
1.93

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.63
Al Ahed
0.84

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw
40%
Shabab Al Ghazieh or Al Ahed
77%
Draw or Al Ahed
83%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
5%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
56%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
19%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
5%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
83%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
53%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
22%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.84 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Al Ahed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Al Ahed attack 1.93 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
17%
level
23%
Al Ahed scores more
60%

Al Ahed at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al Ghazieh 0–3 Al Ahed

Al Ahed beat Shabab Al Ghazieh 3-0 in Premier League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Al Ansar Stadium in Beirut.