Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shabab Al-Ghar vs Al-Tirsana — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Al-Tirsana
Al-Tirsana
4/20/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shabab Al-Ghar38%
×Draw27%
Al-Tirsana35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.28
Al-Tirsana
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Al-Tirsana
1.21

allows per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Al-Tirsana
1.37

finishing

Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par
Al-Tirsana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al-Ghar ↓

Al-Tirsana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shabab Al-Ghar or draw
65%
Shabab Al-Ghar or Al-Tirsana
73%
Draw or Al-Tirsana
62%

Winning margin

Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
17%
Al-Tirsana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
72%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
37%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
14%
Al-Tirsana 1+ goals
70%
Al-Tirsana 2+ goals
34%
Al-Tirsana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
53%
Al-Tirsana (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al-Ghar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Al-Tirsana away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.19 + Al-Tirsana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.28

Al-Tirsana attack 1.21 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
38%
level
27%
Al-Tirsana scores more
35%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al-Ghar 3–3 Al-Tirsana

Shabab Al-Ghar and Al-Tirsana drew 3-3 in Premier League on April 20, 2026.