Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shabab Al-Ghar vs Abu Salim — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
FT
4 – 4
HT: 4 – 2
Abu Salim
Abu Salim
4/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shabab Al-Ghar38%
×Draw30%
Abu Salim32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.13
Abu Salim
1.00

Shabab Al-Ghar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

creates per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Abu Salim
0.82

allows per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Abu Salim
1.07

finishing

Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par
Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al-Ghar ↓

Abu Salim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shabab Al-Ghar or draw
68%
Shabab Al-Ghar or Abu Salim
70%
Draw or Abu Salim
62%

Winning margin

Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
16%
Abu Salim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
68%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
31%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
11%
Abu Salim 1+ goals
63%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
26%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
55%
Abu Salim (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al-Ghar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.19 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
38%
level
30%
Abu Salim scores more
32%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al-Ghar 4–4 Abu Salim

Shabab Al-Ghar and Abu Salim drew 4-4 in Premier League on April 5, 2025.