Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–1 Tractor Sazi

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tractor Sazi

9/16/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 1Al Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai44%

×Draw27%

Tractor Sazi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchTractor Sazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.39

Tractor Sazi

1.06

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

1.27

0.86

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.86

Tractor Sazi

1.27

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

0.86

Tractor Sazi

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Tractor Sazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

71%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Tractor Sazi

73%

Draw or Tractor Sazi

56%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

21%

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

75%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

40%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

16%

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

65%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

29%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

61%

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.86 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tractor Sazi attack 1.27 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

44%

level

27%

Tractor Sazi scores more

29%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff