Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–2 Nasaf: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Nasaf

S. Azmoun 34', 32'

Mateusão 23'

Z. Marušić 45'

A. Mozgovoy 30'

12/4/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai57%

×Draw20%

Nasaf23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchNasaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.40

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.30

Nasaf

1.40

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 64% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

1.20

1.60

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

3.00

Nasaf

1.20

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.60

Nasaf

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Nasaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

77%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Nasaf

80%

Draw or Nasaf

43%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

36%

Nasaf wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

90%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

67%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

40%

Nasaf 1+ goals

75%

Nasaf 2+ goals

41%

Nasaf 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

72%

Nasaf (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 3.00 + Nasaf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Nasaf attack 1.20 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

57%

level

20%

Nasaf scores more

23%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Azmoun

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · F

9.2

Match Events

16'

Golib Gaybullaev

23'

Mateusão↳ S. Azmoun

30'

A. Mozgovoy

32'

S. Azmoun↳ S. Ezatolahi

34'

S. Azmoun

45'

Z. Marušić↳ M. Rahmatov

52'

Sherzod Nasrullaev

61'

L. Milivojević← Walid Abbas

61'

S. González← S. Ezatolahi

61'

B. Planić← Mohammad Juma

65'

S. Bakhromov← M. Stanojević

65'

J. Jighauri← Victor da Silva

65'

Z. Abdirahmatov← J. Siddiqov

69'

M. Dabbur← Yuri César

75'

B. Abdiholiqov← Z. Marušić

80'

F. Cartabia← Mateusão

86'

B. Khalilov← M. Rahmatov

90+3'

Yassine Boualam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShababNasaf

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots6

0Corners1

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots6

7On Target2

3Off Target4

3Blocked0

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

611Total Passes424

521Accurate Passes336

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2