Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4–0 Khorfakkan: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Khorfakkan

F. Cartabia 80' (pen)

Kauan Santos 66'

S. Azmoun 64'

M. Dabbur 38'

4/23/2025

League #301 · Round 22Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai67%

×Draw19%

Khorfakkan14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchKhorfakkan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.88

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.17

Khorfakkan

0.88

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 147% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

0.83

0.93

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.50

Khorfakkan

0.83

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

0.93

Khorfakkan

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Khorfakkan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Khorfakkan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

86%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Khorfakkan

81%

Draw or Khorfakkan

33%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

43%

Khorfakkan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

89%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

64%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

36%

Khorfakkan 1+ goals

59%

Khorfakkan 2+ goals

22%

Khorfakkan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

83%

Khorfakkan (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Khorfakkan away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 2.50 + Khorfakkan defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Khorfakkan attack 0.83 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

67%

level

19%

Khorfakkan scores more

14%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Kauan Santos

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · D

8.9

Match Events

18'

Mohammed Ali Shakir

31'

Mateus Henrique← Renan

38'

M. Dabbur↳ B. Planić

42'

O. Noureddine← T. Tissoudali

46'

A. Camara← B. Ramírez

55'

Harib Suhail

63'

S. Azmoun← M. Dabbur

63'

F. Cartabia← Yahya Al Ghassani

64'

S. Azmoun↳ Yuri César

66'

Kauan Santos↳ S. Azmoun

76'

Abdalla Alrefaey

79'

Yuri CésarPenalty confirmed

80'

F. CartabiaPenalty

81'

Eid Khamis← S. Ezatolahi

81'

Guilherme Bala← Yuri César

87'

Saeed Ahmed← P. Pavlov

90'

Omar Jumaa← Aylton Boa Morte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShababKhorfakkan

Overview

61%Possession39%

24Total Shots3

10Corners5

8Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots3

8On Target0

10Off Target1

6Blocked2

17Inside Box2

7Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

434Total Passes296

390Accurate Passes223

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1