Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–1 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Istiqlol

4/27/2021

AFC Champions League · Group A - 5King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai57%

×Draw23%

Istiqlol19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.92

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.77

Istiqlol

0.92

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 92% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.80

Istiqlol

0.83

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.00

Istiqlol

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

81%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Istiqlol

77%

Draw or Istiqlol

43%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

32%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

83%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

53%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

26%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

60%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

23%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

75%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.80 + Istiqlol defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Istiqlol attack 0.83 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

57%

level

23%

Istiqlol scores more

19%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff