Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–0 Al Wihdat: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Wihdat

8/15/2023

AFC Champions League · Preliminary RoundRashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai63%

×Draw21%

Al Wihdat16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchAl Wihdat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.93

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.04

Al Wihdat

0.93

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 119% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

1.80

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.80

Al Wihdat

0.86

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.00

Al Wihdat

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Al Wihdat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

84%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al Wihdat

79%

Draw or Al Wihdat

37%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

39%

Al Wihdat wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

87%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

60%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

33%

Al Wihdat 1+ goals

61%

Al Wihdat 2+ goals

24%

Al Wihdat 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

79%

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al Wihdat away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.80 + Al Wihdat defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Al Wihdat attack 0.86 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

63%

level

21%

Al Wihdat scores more

16%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff