Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0 Al-Ittihad Kalba

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Ittihad Kalba

11/22/2024

League #301 · Round 8Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai75%

×Draw16%

Al-Ittihad Kalba10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchAl-Ittihad Kalba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.79

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.54

Al-Ittihad Kalba

0.79

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 222% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.75

0.83

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.33

Al-Ittihad Kalba

0.75

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

0.83

Al-Ittihad Kalba

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Al-Ittihad Kalba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Al-Ittihad Kalba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

90%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Ittihad Kalba

84%

Draw or Al-Ittihad Kalba

25%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

53%

Al-Ittihad Kalba wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

92%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

72%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

46%

Al-Ittihad Kalba 1+ goals

55%

Al-Ittihad Kalba 2+ goals

19%

Al-Ittihad Kalba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

89%

Al-Ittihad Kalba (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Al-Ittihad Kalba away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 2.33 + Al-Ittihad Kalba defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.75 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

75%

level

16%

Al-Ittihad Kalba scores more

10%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

B. Planić

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Leandro Leite

22'

Salim Rashid Obaid

29'

Renan

34'

Guilherme BalaPenalty cancelled

37'

Kouadjo Koffi

39'

Federico Cartabia

46'

Kauan Santos← Renan

57'

S. Moghanlou← Yaser Al Blooshi

57'

Ahmed Abunamous← Leandro Spadacio

65'

Mateusão← M. Dabbur

70'

Waleed Al Mahrezi← Abdulaziz Al Hamhami

79'

Yahya Al Ghassani← Breno Cascardo

80'

Habib Al Fardan← K. Koffi

90+4'

Federico CartabiaMissed penalty

90+7'

Mateusão

90+1'

Kauan SantosPenalty confirmed

90'

Sultan Al Mantheri

90+6'

Saeed Sulaiman← Rikelme

90+6'

S. Ezatolahi← F. Cartabia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShababAl-Ittihad

Overview

77%Possession23%

19Total Shots5

11Corners1

12Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots5

3On Target0

8Off Target3

8Blocked2

14Inside Box1

5Outside Box4

Passing

77%Possession23%

624Total Passes189

545Accurate Passes120

87%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1