Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Al-Ahli Jeddah

A. Gyan 90+1' (pen)

Saad Abdulameer 72' (pen)

Hussain Al Mogahwi 24'

Taisir Al Jassim 18'

5/29/2017

AFC Champions League · 8th FinalsAl-Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai43%

×Draw25%

Al-Ahli Jeddah32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.29

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.54

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.29

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

1.80

creates per match

1.58

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.80

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.58

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.00

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

68%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Ahli Jeddah

75%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

57%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

21%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

79%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

45%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

20%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

72%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

37%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

57%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.80 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.58 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

43%

level

25%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

32%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Taisir Al Jassim

Al-Ahli Jeddah · M

8.1

Match Events

7'

Mohammed Al Fatil← Motaz Hawsawi

18'

24'

32'

37'

41'

Ismail Al-Hammadi

45'

Mohammed Al-Fatil

57'

Saeed Ahmed← Habib Fardan Abdualla

58'

58'

70'

70'

72'

Saad AbdulameerPenalty

76'

A. Gyan← Ismaeel Al Hamadi

78'

Khamis Esmaeel

78'

Waleed Hussain← Ahmed Khalil

81'

Amiri Kurdi← I. Fetfatzidis

85'

Hamdan Al Shamrani← Salman Al Moasher

90+1'

A. GyanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShababAl-Ahli

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots11

6Corners2

23Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target6

6Off Target3

2Blocked2

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

331Total Passes476

277Accurate Passes414

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls16

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4