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Shabaab al Jabal vs Darnes — Premier League 2019

Shabaab al Jabal
Shabaab al Jabal
FT
2 – 2
Darnes
Darnes
6/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shabaab al Jabal37%
×Draw27%
Darnes35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabaab al Jabal
1.25
Darnes
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 37 away

creates per match

Shabaab al Jabal
0.79
Darnes
1.05

allows per match

Shabaab al Jabal
1.38
Darnes
1.70

finishing

Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par
Darnes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabaab al Jabal ↓

Darnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shabaab al Jabal or draw
65%
Shabaab al Jabal or Darnes
73%
Draw or Darnes
63%

Winning margin

Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+
16%
Darnes wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals
71%
Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals
36%
Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals
13%
Darnes 1+ goals
70%
Darnes 2+ goals
34%
Darnes 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)
51%
Darnes (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabaab al Jabal at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Darnes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Darnes defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.25

Darnes attack 1.05 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shabaab al Jabal scores more
37%
level
27%
Darnes scores more
35%

Shabaab al Jabal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shabaab al Jabal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabaab al Jabal 2–2 Darnes

Shabaab al Jabal and Darnes drew 2-2 in Premier League on June 4, 2021.