Shaanxi Union 3–1 Shanghai Jiading: Result & Stats

Shaanxi Union

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shanghai Jiading

A. Selmani 90'

H. W. Ma 59'

Aniwar Abduwahap 24'

A. Coffey 44'

10/5/2025

League One · Round 25Weinan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shaanxi Union56%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Jiading20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaanxi UnionExpected goals in this matchShanghai Jiading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.89

Shaanxi Union

1.70

Shanghai Jiading

0.89

Shaanxi Union creates 91% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.81

creates per match

0.63

1.14

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Shaanxi Union

1.81

Shanghai Jiading

0.63

allows per match

Shaanxi Union

1.14

Shanghai Jiading

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaanxi Union+0.00on par

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Union ↓

Shanghai Jiading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shaanxi Union or draw

80%

Shaanxi Union or Shanghai Jiading

76%

Draw or Shanghai Jiading

44%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Union wins by 2+

31%

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shaanxi Union 1+ goals

82%

Shaanxi Union 2+ goals

51%

Shaanxi Union 3+ goals

24%

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

59%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

22%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Union (draw refunded)

74%

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Union at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Union attack 1.81 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.63 + Shaanxi Union defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shaanxi Union scores more

56%

level

24%

Shanghai Jiading scores more

20%

Shaanxi Union at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shaanxi Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Aniwar Abduwahap↳ Eysajan Elkut

33'

A. Amoo← Du Changjie

44'

A. Coffey↳ Su Shihao

46'

Bu Xin← Qu Yanheng

46'

Wang Haoran← Qi Xinlei

59'

H. W. Ma

60'

Wang Haoran

64'

Li Xiaoyi

70'

Wei Zhiwei← Li Xiaoyi

70'

Yan Yu← H. W. Ma

70'

A. Abdusalam← Su Shihao

76'

Xu Dongdong← Eysajan Elkut

83'

Y. Chen

85'

Zhou Junhao← Zhu Baojie

86'

Hu Mingtian← Aniwar Abduwahap

86'

Tan Kaiyuan← R. El Azrak

87'

A. Lukovic

90+1'

Chen Junxu

90'

A. Selmani↳ Hu Mingtian

Shaanxi

Shanghai

35

Xiang

40

Ming

12

▼

Changjie

14

Shuai

5

Tianyi

26

A

▼

Shihao

2

▼

Xinlei

33

▼

Baojie

32

Lukovic

9

⚽

Coffey

11

▼

Yanheng

1

Junxu

37

▼

Xiaoyi

40

A

▼

24

27

35

11

⚽

▼

Abduwahap

20

⚽

▼

Ma

8

Zhiwei

10

▼

Azrak

9

⚽

Selmani

Manager: Giovanni Franken

70'▲Wei Zhiwei←▼Li Xiaoyi

70'▲Yan Yu←▼H. W. Ma

76'▲Xu Dongdong←▼Eysajan Elkut

86'▲Hu Mingtian←▼Aniwar Abduwahap

86'▲Tan Kaiyuan←▼R. El Azrak

Shaanxi Union substitutes

23Li28Yuchen4Weipu38Mingtian33Kaiyuan6Nureli42Zhiwei22Yuren17Dongdong7Ali21Shijie36Yu

Manager: Zoran Janković

33'▲A. Amoo←▼Du Changjie

46'▲Bu Xin←▼Qu Yanheng

46'▲Wang Haoran←▼Qi Xinlei

70'▲A. Abdusalam←▼Su Shihao

85'▲Zhou Junhao←▼Zhu Baojie

Shanghai Jiading substitutes

1Yupeng25Xin6Boyang30Yang7Tianyu45Zou29Abdusalam16Haoran43Lei37Haozhen36Junhao10Amoo