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Shaanxi Union vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — FA Cup 2019

Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
5/18/2024FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundWeinan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shaanxi Union39%
×Draw22%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Union
1.75
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Union
1.50
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00

allows per match

Shaanxi Union
1.50
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00

finishing

Shaanxi Union+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Union ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Shaanxi Union or draw
61%
Shaanxi Union or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
78%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
61%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Union wins by 2+
20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shaanxi Union 1+ goals
83%
Shaanxi Union 2+ goals
52%
Shaanxi Union 3+ goals
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
52%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Union (draw refunded)
50%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Union at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Union attack 1.50 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.00 + Shaanxi Union defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shaanxi Union scores more
39%
level
22%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
39%

Shaanxi Union at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shaanxi Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Shaanxi Union 1–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Shaanxi Union and Guangzhou Evergrande FC drew 1-1 in FA Cup on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Weinan Sports Center Stadium in Weinan.