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Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
9/21/2022League OneLeague One · Round 22Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic62%
×Draw23%
Xinjiang Tianshan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.80
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.78

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 131% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.46
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
0.93
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw
84%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Xinjiang Tianshan
77%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
38%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
36%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
83%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
54%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
27%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
54%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
18%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
80%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.80

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
62%
level
23%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
16%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shaanxi Changan Athletic 4–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Shaanxi Changan Athletic beat Xinjiang Tianshan 4-0 in League One on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.