Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Shenyang Urban — League One 2018

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
9/6/2022League OneLeague One · Round 19Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic48%
×Draw27%
Shenyang Urban26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.44
Shenyang Urban
0.98

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 47% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.46
Shenyang Urban
1.03

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
0.93
Shenyang Urban
1.41

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par
Shenyang Urban+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Shenyang Urban →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw
74%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Shenyang Urban
73%
Draw or Shenyang Urban
52%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
23%
Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
76%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
42%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
18%
Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
62%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
26%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
65%
Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
48%
level
27%
Shenyang Urban scores more
26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Shenyang Urban

Shenyang Urban beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1-0 in League One on September 6, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base in Nanjing.