Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1–2 SHANGHAI SIPG

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SHANGHAI SIPG

10/19/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundDalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic12%

×Draw20%

SHANGHAI SIPG68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaanxi Changan AthleticExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

2.00

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

0.69

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.00

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 190% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

0.67

creates per match

3.00

1.00

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

0.67

SHANGHAI SIPG

3.00

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.00

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0–07%

0–114%

0–214%

0–39%

0–45%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw

32%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or SHANGHAI SIPG

80%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

88%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

50%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

15%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

86%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

59%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

15%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 0.67 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 3.00 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

12%

level

20%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

68%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff