Shaanxi Changan Athletic 0–1 Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

8/4/2019

League One · Round 20Weinan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic49%

×Draw26%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaanxi Changan AthleticExpected goals in this matchNei Mongol Zhongyou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.54

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.04

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

1.46

creates per match

1.15

0.93

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.46

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.15

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

0.93

Nei Mongol Zhongyou

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw

74%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

74%

Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou

51%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

25%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

79%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

45%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

20%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals

65%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals

28%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

66%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.15 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

49%

level

26%

Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more

26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff