Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2–0 Nanjing City

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nanjing City

7/12/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 1Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic47%

×Draw27%

Nanjing City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaanxi Changan AthleticExpected goals in this matchNanjing City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.98

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.41

Nanjing City

0.98

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

1.46

creates per match

1.03

0.93

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.46

Nanjing City

1.03

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

0.93

Nanjing City

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Nanjing City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw

74%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Nanjing City

73%

Draw or Nanjing City

53%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

23%

Nanjing City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

76%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

41%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

17%

Nanjing City 1+ goals

62%

Nanjing City 2+ goals

26%

Nanjing City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

64%

Nanjing City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

47%

level

27%

Nanjing City scores more

26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff