Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Meizhou Meixian Techand — League One 2018

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
5/18/2019League OneLeague One · Round 10Weinan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic50%
×Draw24%
Meizhou Meixian Techand26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.67
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.13

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.46
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.33

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
0.93
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.87

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par
Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw
74%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Meizhou Meixian Techand
76%
Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand
50%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
27%
Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
81%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
50%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
23%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
68%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
31%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
66%
Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.67

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
50%
level
24%
Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
26%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Meizhou Meixian Techand

Meizhou Meixian Techand beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3-1 in League One on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Weinan Sports Center Stadium in Weinan.