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Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Guizhou Zhicheng — FA Cup 2019

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
8/20/2021FA CupFA Cup · 3rd Preliminary RoundTazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic42%
×Draw34%
Guizhou Zhicheng24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.00
Guizhou Zhicheng
0.67

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
0.67
Guizhou Zhicheng
0.33

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.00
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.33

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw
76%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Guizhou Zhicheng
66%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
58%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
16%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
63%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
26%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
8%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
49%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
15%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
64%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 0.67 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 0.33 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
42%
level
34%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
24%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Shaanxi Changan Athletic beat Guizhou Zhicheng 1-0 in FA Cup on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3 in Wuhan.