SGV Freiberg 3–2 Sandhausen II: Result & Stats

SGV Freiberg

FT

3 – 2

Sandhausen II

10/17/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 12Wasen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SGV Freiberg72%

×Draw16%

Sandhausen II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SGV FreibergExpected goals in this matchSandhausen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.01

SGV Freiberg

2.65

Sandhausen II

1.01

SGV Freiberg creates 162% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

3.12

creates per match

1.33

0.68

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

SGV Freiberg

3.12

Sandhausen II

1.33

allows per match

SGV Freiberg

0.68

Sandhausen II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SGV Freiberg ↓

Sandhausen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

SGV Freiberg or draw

88%

SGV Freiberg or Sandhausen II

84%

Draw or Sandhausen II

28%

Winning margin

SGV Freiberg wins by 2+

50%

Sandhausen II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

SGV Freiberg 1+ goals

93%

SGV Freiberg 2+ goals

74%

SGV Freiberg 3+ goals

48%

Sandhausen II 1+ goals

64%

Sandhausen II 2+ goals

27%

Sandhausen II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)

85%

Sandhausen II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SGV Freiberg at home — creates 3.12, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SGV Freiberg attack 3.12 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.65

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

SGV Freiberg scores more

72%

level

16%

Sandhausen II scores more

12%

SGV Freiberg at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff