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SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
1860 München U19
1860 München U19
2/15/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SGV Freiberg Fussball U1953%
×Draw21%
1860 München U1926%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
2.21
1860 München U19
1.52

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 54 away

creates per match

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
2.33
1860 München U19
1.70

allows per match

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
1.33
1860 München U19
2.09

finishing

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19+0.00on par
1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 or draw
74%
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 or 1860 München U19
79%
Draw or 1860 München U19
47%

Winning margin

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 wins by 2+
32%
1860 München U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 1+ goals
89%
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 2+ goals
65%
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 3+ goals
38%
1860 München U19 1+ goals
78%
1860 München U19 2+ goals
45%
1860 München U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 (draw refunded)
67%
1860 München U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 attack 2.33 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.21

1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 scores more
53%
level
21%
1860 München U19 scores more
26%

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 3 – 1 1860 München U19

SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 beat 1860 München U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2026.