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SG Wattenscheid 09 vs TVD Velbert — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
FT
0 – 2
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0933%
×Draw29%
TVD Velbert39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.05
TVD Velbert
1.17

TVD Velbert creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.44
TVD Velbert
1.33

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.00
TVD Velbert
0.67

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw
61%
SG Wattenscheid 09 or TVD Velbert
71%
Draw or TVD Velbert
67%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
13%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
65%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
28%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
9%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
69%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
33%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
46%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.44 + TVD Velbert defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

TVD Velbert attack 1.33 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
33%
level
29%
TVD Velbert scores more
39%

TVD Velbert at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG Wattenscheid 09 vs TVD Velbert

TVD Velbert beat SG Wattenscheid 09 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.