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SG Wattenscheid 09 vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
3/4/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 18Lohrheidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0955%
×Draw22%
TuS Haltern24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Wattenscheid 09
2.00
TuS Haltern
1.25

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 20 away

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.65
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.11
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw
76%
SG Wattenscheid 09 or TuS Haltern
78%
Draw or TuS Haltern
45%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
32%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
86%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
59%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
32%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
71%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
36%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
70%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.65 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.00

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
55%
level
22%
TuS Haltern scores more
24%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG Wattenscheid 09 vs TuS Haltern

SG Wattenscheid 09 beat TuS Haltern 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Lohrheidestadion in Bochum.