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SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Schalke 04 II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Schalke 04 II
Schalke 04 II
T. Kaminski 82'
Unknown 87' (OG)
N. Awassi 31'
8/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lohrheidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0938%
×Draw27%
Schalke 04 II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.31
Schalke 04 II
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.36
Schalke 04 II
1.13

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.36
Schalke 04 II
1.25

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par
Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

Schalke 04 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw
65%
SG Wattenscheid 09 or Schalke 04 II
73%
Draw or Schalke 04 II
62%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
17%
Schalke 04 II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
73%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
38%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
14%
Schalke 04 II 1+ goals
71%
Schalke 04 II 2+ goals
36%
Schalke 04 II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
52%
Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Schalke 04 II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.36 + Schalke 04 II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Schalke 04 II attack 1.13 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
38%
level
27%
Schalke 04 II scores more
35%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
N. Awassi
82'
T. Kaminski
87'
Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SG Wattenscheid 09 1–2 Schalke 04 II

Schalke 04 II beat SG Wattenscheid 09 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 29, 2020.

Goals: N. Awassi (31'), T. Kaminski (82'), ? (87' o.g.).

The match was played at Lohrheidestadion in Bochum.