SG Wattenscheid 09 4–0 Hammer SpVg: Result & Stats

SG Wattenscheid 09

FT

4 – 0

Hammer SpVg

11/28/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Lohrheidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0961%

×Draw21%

Hammer SpVg18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SG Wattenscheid 09Expected goals in this matchHammer SpVg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.03

SG Wattenscheid 09

2.06

Hammer SpVg

1.03

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.65

Hammer SpVg

0.95

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.11

Hammer SpVg

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

Hammer SpVg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw

82%

SG Wattenscheid 09 or Hammer SpVg

79%

Draw or Hammer SpVg

39%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+

37%

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals

87%

SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals

61%

SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals

34%

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals

64%

Hammer SpVg 2+ goals

28%

Hammer SpVg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)

77%

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.65 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more

61%

level

21%

Hammer SpVg scores more

18%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff