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SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Gievenbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
11/14/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 15Sportzentrum Berliner Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0943%
×Draw25%
Gievenbeck32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.53
Gievenbeck
1.27

SG Wattenscheid 09 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 70 away

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.65
Gievenbeck
1.43

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.11
Gievenbeck
1.41

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par
Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

Gievenbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw
68%
SG Wattenscheid 09 or Gievenbeck
75%
Draw or Gievenbeck
57%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
21%
Gievenbeck wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
78%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
45%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
20%
Gievenbeck 1+ goals
72%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
36%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
58%
Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.65 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
43%
level
25%
Gievenbeck scores more
32%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: SG Wattenscheid 09 1–1 Gievenbeck

SG Wattenscheid 09 and Gievenbeck drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Berliner Straße in Bochum.