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SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
FT
2 – 2
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
8/12/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lohrheidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SG Wattenscheid 0933%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.52
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.77

Fortuna Düsseldorf II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.36
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
2.17

allows per match

SG Wattenscheid 09
1.36
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.67

finishing

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Wattenscheid 09 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SG Wattenscheid 09 or draw
56%
SG Wattenscheid 09 or Fortuna Düsseldorf II
77%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf II
67%

Winning margin

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
16%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
78%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
45%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals
53%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
43%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Wattenscheid 09 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.36 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 2.17 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
33%
level
23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more
44%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II

SG Wattenscheid 09 and Fortuna Düsseldorf II drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Lohrheidestadion in Bochum.