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SG Unterrath U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

SG Unterrath U19
SG Unterrath U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
3/7/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SG Unterrath U1916%
×Draw20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U1964%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Unterrath U19
1.01
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
2.19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 68 away

creates per match

SG Unterrath U19
0.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.68

allows per match

SG Unterrath U19
2.71
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.46

finishing

SG Unterrath U19+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Unterrath U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SG Unterrath U19 or draw
36%
SG Unterrath U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
80%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
84%

Winning margin

SG Unterrath U19 wins by 2+
6%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

SG Unterrath U19 1+ goals
64%
SG Unterrath U19 2+ goals
27%
SG Unterrath U19 3+ goals
8%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
89%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
64%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

SG Unterrath U19 (draw refunded)
20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Unterrath U19 at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Unterrath U19 attack 0.57 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.01

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + SG Unterrath U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SG Unterrath U19 scores more
16%
level
20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
64%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG Unterrath U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat SG Unterrath U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 7, 2026.