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SG-Tertre-Hautrage vs Braine — League #689 2026

SG-Tertre-Hautrage
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
FT
3 – 3
Braine
Braine
11/10/2024League #689League #689 · ACFF A - 12Stade Saint Lo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SG-Tertre-Hautrage45%
×Draw20%
Braine34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG-Tertre-Hautrage
2.22
Braine
1.92

SG-Tertre-Hautrage creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

creates per match

SG-Tertre-Hautrage
2.11
Braine
2.33

allows per match

SG-Tertre-Hautrage
1.50
Braine
2.33

finishing

SG-Tertre-Hautrage+0.00on par
Braine+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG-Tertre-Hautrage ↓

Braine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

SG-Tertre-Hautrage or draw
66%
SG-Tertre-Hautrage or Braine
80%
Draw or Braine
55%

Winning margin

SG-Tertre-Hautrage wins by 2+
26%
Braine wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SG-Tertre-Hautrage 1+ goals
89%
SG-Tertre-Hautrage 2+ goals
65%
SG-Tertre-Hautrage 3+ goals
38%
Braine 1+ goals
85%
Braine 2+ goals
57%
Braine 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SG-Tertre-Hautrage (draw refunded)
57%
Braine (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG-Tertre-Hautrage at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Braine away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG-Tertre-Hautrage attack 2.11 + Braine defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.22

Braine attack 2.33 + SG-Tertre-Hautrage defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SG-Tertre-Hautrage scores more
45%
level
20%
Braine scores more
34%

SG-Tertre-Hautrage at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SG-Tertre-Hautrage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG-Tertre-Hautrage vs Braine

SG-Tertre-Hautrage and Braine drew 3-3 in League #689 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saint Lo in Saint-Ghislain.