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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Villingen II
Villingen II
10/4/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach83%
×Draw12%
Villingen II6%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.88
Villingen II
0.63

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 357% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.65
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
0.67
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw
94%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Villingen II
88%
Draw or Villingen II
17%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+
63%
Villingen II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals
94%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals
78%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals
54%
Villingen II 1+ goals
47%
Villingen II 2+ goals
13%
Villingen II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)
94%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.88

Villingen II attack 0.59 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more
83%
level
12%
Villingen II scores more
6%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Villingen II

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach beat Villingen II 5-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at WIRmachenDRUCK Arena in Aspach.