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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
V. Celiktas 89'
D. Salz 3'
E. G. McDonald 66'
4/6/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach65%
×Draw19%
Neckarsulmer SU15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.21
Neckarsulmer SU
0.96

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 130% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 42 away

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.65
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
0.67
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw
85%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Neckarsulmer SU
81%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
35%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+
42%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals
89%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals
65%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals
38%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
62%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
25%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)
81%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.21

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more
65%
level
19%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
15%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Salz
66'
E. G. McDonald
89'
V. Celiktas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Neckarsulmer SU

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach beat Neckarsulmer SU 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 6, 2023.

Goals: D. Salz (3'), E. G. McDonald (66'), V. Celiktas (89').

The match was played at WIRmachenDRUCK Arena in Aspach.