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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
10/9/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 12WIRmachenDRUCK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach60%
×Draw21%
Göppinger SV19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.06
Göppinger SV
1.08

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 91% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.65
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
0.67
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw
81%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Göppinger SV
79%
Draw or Göppinger SV
40%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+
36%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals
87%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals
61%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals
34%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
66%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
29%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)
76%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.06

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more
60%
level
21%
Göppinger SV scores more
19%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2 – 0 Göppinger SV

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach beat Göppinger SV 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at WIRmachenDRUCK Arena in Aspach.