SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–1 Essingen

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Essingen

12/2/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 20Kunstrasenplatz Sportpark Fautenhau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach62%

×Draw20%

Essingen17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachExpected goals in this matchEssingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.01

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.10

Essingen

1.01

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 108% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

2.65

creates per match

1.35

0.67

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.65

Essingen

1.35

allows per match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

0.67

Essingen

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Essingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach ↓

Essingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw

83%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or Essingen

80%

Draw or Essingen

38%

Winning margin

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

39%

Essingen wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

88%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

62%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

35%

Essingen 1+ goals

64%

Essingen 2+ goals

27%

Essingen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

78%

Essingen (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Essingen away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.65 + Essingen defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.10

Essingen attack 1.35 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

62%

level

20%

Essingen scores more

17%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff