SFS Borac 3–2 Župa: Result & Stats

SFS Borac

FT

3 – 2

Župa

9/6/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SFS Borac61%

×Draw19%

Župa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SFS BoracExpected goals in this matchŽupa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.25

SFS Borac

2.31

Župa

1.25

SFS Borac creates 85% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

2.05

creates per match

1.26

1.25

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

SFS Borac

2.05

Župa

1.26

allows per match

SFS Borac

1.25

Župa

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Župa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Župa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw

80%

SFS Borac or Župa

81%

Draw or Župa

39%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+

39%

Župa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals

90%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

67%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

40%

Župa 1+ goals

71%

Župa 2+ goals

36%

Župa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

75%

Župa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Župa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Župa defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.31

Župa attack 1.26 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

SFS Borac scores more

61%

level

19%

Župa scores more

20%

SFS Borac at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff