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SFS Borac vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Timočanin
Timočanin
3/19/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

SFS Borac54%
×Draw23%
Timočanin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
1.86
Timočanin
1.15

SFS Borac creates 62% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
77%
SFS Borac or Timočanin
77%
Draw or Timočanin
46%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
31%
Timočanin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
84%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
55%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
28%
Timočanin 1+ goals
68%
Timočanin 2+ goals
32%
Timočanin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
70%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Timočanin attack 1.05 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SFS Borac scores more
54%
level
23%
Timočanin scores more
23%

SFS Borac at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFS Borac vs Timočanin

SFS Borac and Timočanin drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.