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SFS Borac vs Morava Vladičin Han — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
2 – 2
Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
4/11/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 27Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SFS Borac66%
×Draw18%
Morava Vladičin Han16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
2.42
Morava Vladičin Han
1.10

SFS Borac creates 120% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Morava Vladičin Han
0.95

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Morava Vladičin Han
2.79

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
84%
SFS Borac or Morava Vladičin Han
82%
Draw or Morava Vladičin Han
34%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
44%
Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
91%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
69%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
43%
Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
67%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
30%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
81%
Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.42

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SFS Borac scores more
66%
level
18%
Morava Vladičin Han scores more
16%

SFS Borac at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: SFS Borac 2–2 Morava Vladičin Han

SFS Borac and Morava Vladičin Han drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.