SFS Borac 0–1 Morava Ćuprija: Result & Stats

SFS Borac

FT

0 – 1

Morava Ćuprija

9/29/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 8Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SFS Borac48%

×Draw23%

Morava Ćuprija29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SFS BoracExpected goals in this matchMorava Ćuprija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.38

SFS Borac

1.84

Morava Ćuprija

1.38

SFS Borac creates 33% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 30 away

2.05

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

SFS Borac

2.05

Morava Ćuprija

1.50

allows per match

SFS Borac

1.25

Morava Ćuprija

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Morava Ćuprija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Morava Ćuprija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw

71%

SFS Borac or Morava Ćuprija

77%

Draw or Morava Ćuprija

52%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+

27%

Morava Ćuprija wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals

84%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

55%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

28%

Morava Ćuprija 1+ goals

75%

Morava Ćuprija 2+ goals

40%

Morava Ćuprija 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

62%

Morava Ćuprija (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Morava Ćuprija away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Morava Ćuprija defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.84

Morava Ćuprija attack 1.50 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SFS Borac scores more

48%

level

23%

Morava Ćuprija scores more

29%

SFS Borac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff