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SFS Borac vs Mladost Medoševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
0 – 1
Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
8/16/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SFS Borac59%
×Draw20%
Mladost Medoševac21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
2.21
Mladost Medoševac
1.23

SFS Borac creates 80% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Mladost Medoševac
1.21

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Mladost Medoševac
2.37

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Mladost Medoševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
79%
SFS Borac or Mladost Medoševac
80%
Draw or Mladost Medoševac
41%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
37%
Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
89%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
65%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
38%
Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
71%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
35%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
74%
Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Mladost Medoševac away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Mladost Medoševac defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.21

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.21 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SFS Borac scores more
59%
level
20%
Mladost Medoševac scores more
21%

SFS Borac at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: SFS Borac 0–1 Mladost Medoševac

Mladost Medoševac beat SFS Borac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.