SFS Borac 7–0 Kablovi Zaječar: Result & Stats

SFS Borac

FT

7 – 0

Kablovi Zaječar

2/27/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SFS Borac87%

×Draw8%

Kablovi Zaječar5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SFS BoracExpected goals in this matchKablovi Zaječar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.94

0.89

SFS Borac

3.94

Kablovi Zaječar

0.89

SFS Borac creates 343% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

2.05

creates per match

0.53

1.25

allows per match

5.84

creates per match

SFS Borac

2.05

Kablovi Zaječar

0.53

allows per match

SFS Borac

1.25

Kablovi Zaječar

5.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw

95%

SFS Borac or Kablovi Zaječar

92%

Draw or Kablovi Zaječar

13%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+

73%

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals

98%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

89%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

72%

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals

59%

Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals

22%

Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

95%

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.94

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

SFS Borac scores more

87%

level

8%

Kablovi Zaječar scores more

5%

SFS Borac at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff