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SFS Borac vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
11/20/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 15Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SFS Borac60%
×Draw21%
Dunav Stari Banovci19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
2.02
Dunav Stari Banovci
1.05

SFS Borac creates 92% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 7 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.86

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.00

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
81%
SFS Borac or Dunav Stari Banovci
79%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
40%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
36%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
87%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
60%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
33%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
65%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
28%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
76%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.86 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SFS Borac scores more
60%
level
21%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
19%

SFS Borac at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFS Borac vs Dunav Stari Banovci

SFS Borac and Dunav Stari Banovci drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.