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SFS Borac vs Dubočica — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dubočica
Dubočica
9/25/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SFS Borac41%
×Draw24%
Dubočica35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
1.56
Dubočica
1.41

SFS Borac creates 11% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Dubočica
1.57

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Dubočica
1.08

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
65%
SFS Borac or Dubočica
76%
Draw or Dubočica
59%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
20%
Dubočica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
79%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
46%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
21%
Dubočica 1+ goals
76%
Dubočica 2+ goals
41%
Dubočica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
54%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dubočica attack 1.57 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SFS Borac scores more
41%
level
24%
Dubočica scores more
35%

SFS Borac at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFS Borac vs Dubočica

Dubočica beat SFS Borac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.