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SFS Borac vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
10/9/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

SFS Borac47%
×Draw23%
Budućnost Popovac29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
1.75
Budućnost Popovac
1.32

SFS Borac creates 33% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 87 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
71%
SFS Borac or Budućnost Popovac
77%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
53%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
26%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
83%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
52%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
25%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
73%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
38%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
62%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.75

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SFS Borac scores more
47%
level
23%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
29%

SFS Borac at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: SFS Borac 0–1 Budućnost Popovac

Budućnost Popovac beat SFS Borac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.