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Budućnost Popovac vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
9/15/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 6Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Budućnost Popovac52%
×Draw24%
SFS Borac24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.71
SFS Borac
1.08

Budućnost Popovac creates 58% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 72 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
76%
Budućnost Popovac or SFS Borac
76%
Draw or SFS Borac
48%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
28%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
82%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
51%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
24%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
66%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
29%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
68%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
52%
level
24%
SFS Borac scores more
24%

Budućnost Popovac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Budućnost Popovac 2–1 SFS Borac

Budućnost Popovac beat SFS Borac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.