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SFK 2000 W vs Osijek W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

SFK 2000 W
SFK 2000 W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Osijek W
Osijek Wadvanced
9/6/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsOlimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SFK 2000 W59%
×Draw20%
Osijek W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFK 2000 W
2.21
Osijek W
1.25

SFK 2000 W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

SFK 2000 W
2.42
Osijek W
1.00

allows per match

SFK 2000 W
1.50
Osijek W
2.00

finishing

SFK 2000 W+0.00on par
Osijek W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFK 2000 W ↓

Osijek W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SFK 2000 W or draw
79%
SFK 2000 W or Osijek W
80%
Draw or Osijek W
41%

Winning margin

SFK 2000 W wins by 2+
37%
Osijek W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SFK 2000 W 1+ goals
89%
SFK 2000 W 2+ goals
65%
SFK 2000 W 3+ goals
38%
Osijek W 1+ goals
71%
Osijek W 2+ goals
36%
Osijek W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SFK 2000 W (draw refunded)
74%
Osijek W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFK 2000 W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Osijek W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFK 2000 W attack 2.42 + Osijek W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Osijek W attack 1.00 + SFK 2000 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SFK 2000 W scores more
59%
level
20%
Osijek W scores more
21%

SFK 2000 W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SFK 2000 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SFK 2000 W vs Osijek W

Osijek W beat SFK 2000 W 4-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Olimpijski Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase in Sarajevo.