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SFK 2000 W vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

SFK 2000 W
SFK 2000 W
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
8/21/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - 3rd Place FinalsNogometni kamp Reprezentacije BiH

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SFK 2000 W52%
×Draw20%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFK 2000 W
2.38
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
1.75

SFK 2000 W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

SFK 2000 W
2.42
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
2.00

allows per match

SFK 2000 W
1.50
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
2.33

finishing

SFK 2000 W+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFK 2000 W ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

SFK 2000 W or draw
71%
SFK 2000 W or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
80%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
48%

Winning margin

SFK 2000 W wins by 2+
32%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SFK 2000 W 1+ goals
91%
SFK 2000 W 2+ goals
68%
SFK 2000 W 3+ goals
42%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 2+ goals
52%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SFK 2000 W (draw refunded)
64%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFK 2000 W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFK 2000 W attack 2.42 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W attack 2.00 + SFK 2000 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SFK 2000 W scores more
52%
level
20%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W scores more
29%

SFK 2000 W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SFK 2000 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: SFK 2000 W 1–1 Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

SFK 2000 W and Maccabi Kiryat Gat W drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Nogometni kamp Reprezentacije BiH in Zenica.