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SFK 2000 W vs Birkirkara W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

SFK 2000 W
SFK 2000 Wadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birkirkara W
Birkirkara W
8/18/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsCluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SFK 2000 W69%
×Draw18%
Birkirkara W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFK 2000 W
2.40
Birkirkara W
0.94

SFK 2000 W creates 155% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

SFK 2000 W
2.42
Birkirkara W
0.38

allows per match

SFK 2000 W
1.50
Birkirkara W
2.38

finishing

SFK 2000 W+0.00on par
Birkirkara W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFK 2000 W ↓

Birkirkara W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SFK 2000 W or draw
87%
SFK 2000 W or Birkirkara W
82%
Draw or Birkirkara W
31%

Winning margin

SFK 2000 W wins by 2+
47%
Birkirkara W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SFK 2000 W 1+ goals
91%
SFK 2000 W 2+ goals
69%
SFK 2000 W 3+ goals
42%
Birkirkara W 1+ goals
61%
Birkirkara W 2+ goals
24%
Birkirkara W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SFK 2000 W (draw refunded)
84%
Birkirkara W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFK 2000 W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Birkirkara W away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFK 2000 W attack 2.42 + Birkirkara W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.40

Birkirkara W attack 0.38 + SFK 2000 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

SFK 2000 W scores more
69%
level
18%
Birkirkara W scores more
13%

SFK 2000 W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "SFK 2000 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: SFK 2000 W 4–0 Birkirkara W

SFK 2000 W beat Birkirkara W 4-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.