Sfîntul Gheorghe 1–0 Victoria Bardar

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Victoria Bardar

V. Plămădeală 8'

10/26/2021

Cupa · Round of 16Baza Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe30%

×Draw22%

Victoria Bardar48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfîntul GheorgheExpected goals in this matchVictoria Bardar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.89

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.46

Victoria Bardar

1.89

Victoria Bardar creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

3.58

0.20

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.00

Victoria Bardar

3.58

allows per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.20

Victoria Bardar

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfîntul Gheorghe ↓

Victoria Bardar →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sfîntul Gheorghe or draw

52%

Sfîntul Gheorghe or Victoria Bardar

78%

Draw or Victoria Bardar

70%

Winning margin

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

14%

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

77%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

43%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

18%

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals

85%

Victoria Bardar 2+ goals

56%

Victoria Bardar 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

39%

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sfîntul Gheorghe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.00 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Victoria Bardar attack 3.58 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

30%

level

22%

Victoria Bardar scores more

48%

Victoria Bardar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

V. Plămădeală

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff