Sfîntul Gheorghe 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol

Sfîntul Gheorghe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

R. Lushkja 90+5'

5/21/2022

Cupa · FinalStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe27%

×Draw31%

Sheriff Tiraspol42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfîntul GheorgheExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.10

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.83

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.10

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

0.20

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.00

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.00

allows per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.20

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfîntul Gheorghe ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sfîntul Gheorghe or draw

58%

Sfîntul Gheorghe or Sheriff Tiraspol

69%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

73%

Winning margin

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

9%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

56%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

20%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

5%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

67%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

30%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

40%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfîntul Gheorghe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.00 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.00 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

27%

level

31%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

42%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'

M. Yansane← Pernambuco

75'

V. Paireli← I. Damaşcan

90+1'

N. Solodovnicov← A. Suvorov

90+1'

D. Celeadnic← S. Evangelou

90+5'

R. Lushkja

Sfîntul

Sheriff

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Mandricenco

75'▲V. Paireli←▼I. Damaşcan

90+1'▲N. Solodovnicov←▼A. Suvorov

Sfîntul Gheorghe substitutes

PaireliSolodovnicovCalaidjogluLisuPușcașIbrahimRaileanȘtefanSvinarenco

Manager: Y. Vernydub

69'▲M. Yansane←▼Pernambuco

90+1'▲D. Celeadnic←▼S. Evangelou

Sheriff Tiraspol substitutes

YansaneCeleadnicNikolovPetroAnkudinovIgnatovJulienCojocariPaşcencoThill