Sfîntul Gheorghe 3–1 Milsami Orhei: Result & Stats

Sfîntul Gheorghe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Milsami Orhei

7/19/2020

Super Liga · Round 4Stadionul Sătesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe36%

×Draw26%

Milsami Orhei38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sfîntul GheorgheExpected goals in this matchMilsami Orhei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.35

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.31

Milsami Orhei

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

1.35

creates per match

1.46

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.35

Milsami Orhei

1.46

allows per match

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.24

Milsami Orhei

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sfîntul Gheorghe ↓

Milsami Orhei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sfîntul Gheorghe or draw

62%

Sfîntul Gheorghe or Milsami Orhei

74%

Draw or Milsami Orhei

64%

Winning margin

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

16%

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

73%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

38%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

14%

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

74%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

39%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

49%

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sfîntul Gheorghe at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.35 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Milsami Orhei attack 1.46 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

36%

level

26%

Milsami Orhei scores more

38%

Milsami Orhei at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff